Election Day 2019
Summary
On Thursday this country stands at a pivot point in its history. If victory is handed to Boris Johnson I believe we are headed for a disastrous hard or no deal Brexit, the break up of the United Kingdom, ravaging Climate Change unchecked, deeper austerity and privateering of our public services, causing many of them to collapse and poverty becoming endemic. Much of this damage will be permanent and can't simply be righted by a future government.
Sadly, it's now clear from the polls that Labour can't win a majority. The only way to prevent this evil being released on our nation now is to vote for a Labour minority government, working co-operatively with others. Our only hope for achieving that is voting tactically for the party best placed to beat the Tories in your constituency. In most places that will be Labour, but if you live say in Brighton that will be Green and in Guildford Lib Dem. And if you're a Lib Dem living in Boris's own constituency of Uxbridge you've got to vote Labour to get him out (wouldnt that be fantastic?) and if you're a Labour supporter in Esher to remove Dominic Raab it's got to be Lib Dem. (And they are real possibilities btw). If you're not sure have a look at the tactical voting websites:
https://www.peoples-vote.uk/ or https://tacticalvote.getvoting.org/
Also worth looking at the final huge Yougov MRP poll at constituency level :
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/
Or even explore a tactical vote swap at:
https://www.swapmyvote.uk/about
Tragically, Sauron in the unlikely form of the demagogue-clown Boris, has wielded his ring of power and there seems no way of stopping it- his promise to "get Brexit done" and "move on" with "the people's priorities".
Father of Lies
But this powerful promise is simply a fraud on the nation by perhaps our most dishonest and untrustworthy political leader in modern history, who even lied to the Queen to get her to prologue Parliament. Unfortunately when it comes to telling porkies Boris is rather good at it because he's spent his whole life doing it, so lying comes second nature to him and he will hardly blink. This is why his former boss at the Daily Telegraph, Max Hastings, says of him "my labrador is more fit to be Prime Minister". His personal and professional track record is as a man almost as divorced from the truth as he is from his various wives he cheated upon. He is a proven liar and fantasist in almost equal measure, sacked from two previous jobs for dishonesty as a journalist and then as a member of Michael Howard's shadow cabinet. He started his career as a journalist, making up lies about the EU, such as fake EU laws on bendy bananas and condom sizes. And in his fairly short political career he has become legendary for making bold promises he breaks as soon as those promises hit the hard stone of reality. There are plenty of examples of that from his time as London Mayor (and btw almost all boasts about his record as Mayor are fake) . And in his short 4 months as Prime Minister he has already broken his promise to the DUP that he'd never agree to a border in the Irish Sea, and, of course, his infamous "die in a ditch" pledge to never ask the EU to extend Brexit beyond 31st October (despite well knowing he was obliged to to request an extension if parliament didn't pass his deal).
Frustratingly, in this election he has mostly get managed to away from full exposure of his dishonesty because he has wisely evaded the all seeing search lights of Andrew Neill and Piers Morgan (even hiding in a fridge to avoid Piers). It's also because his opponent in Jeremy Corbyn is just too decent to "do personal", despite the mud thrown in his own direction. The politician who comes closest to him in terms of dishonesty is Trump but to be fair to Boris he is both cleverer and less nasty. Boris is primarily not out there to harm anyone nor to follow any particular creed, even Brexit. Hence why his old mate David Cameron was stunned when on the eve of the referendum for the first time ever he "outted" himself as a leaver, purely because of his calculation that this would best serve his ambitions to be the future Tory leader and PM (whatever way the result want). And that's the thing about Boris, unlike most politicians of all colours who I believe are largely motivated do good (including his predecessor), Boris's only real motivation is Boris and what does him most good and gives him the most fun. For him being Prime Minister is all a big hoot and the lies and fantasies are all just part of the game to get and keep him there.
Sadly, the deceived, disillusioned and desperate people buying his promise that getting his Brexit done will see our communities revived, are being sold a poison that will do the very opposite (see my earlier piece: https://jeremysblog67.blogspot.com/2019/12/get-brexit-done-why-boris-wont-why-and.html?m=1 )
Sadly, it's now clear from the polls that Labour can't win a majority. The only way to prevent this evil being released on our nation now is to vote for a Labour minority government, working co-operatively with others. Our only hope for achieving that is voting tactically for the party best placed to beat the Tories in your constituency. In most places that will be Labour, but if you live say in Brighton that will be Green and in Guildford Lib Dem. And if you're a Lib Dem living in Boris's own constituency of Uxbridge you've got to vote Labour to get him out (wouldnt that be fantastic?) and if you're a Labour supporter in Esher to remove Dominic Raab it's got to be Lib Dem. (And they are real possibilities btw). If you're not sure have a look at the tactical voting websites:
https://www.peoples-vote.uk/ or https://tacticalvote.getvoting.org/
Also worth looking at the final huge Yougov MRP poll at constituency level :
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/
Or even explore a tactical vote swap at:
https://www.swapmyvote.uk/about
A Fool's Hope?
Tragically, Sauron in the unlikely form of the demagogue-clown Boris, has wielded his ring of power and there seems no way of stopping it- his promise to "get Brexit done" and "move on" with "the people's priorities". 
Father of Lies
But this powerful promise is simply a fraud on the nation by perhaps our most dishonest and untrustworthy political leader in modern history, who even lied to the Queen to get her to prologue Parliament. Unfortunately when it comes to telling porkies Boris is rather good at it because he's spent his whole life doing it, so lying comes second nature to him and he will hardly blink. This is why his former boss at the Daily Telegraph, Max Hastings, says of him "my labrador is more fit to be Prime Minister". His personal and professional track record is as a man almost as divorced from the truth as he is from his various wives he cheated upon. He is a proven liar and fantasist in almost equal measure, sacked from two previous jobs for dishonesty as a journalist and then as a member of Michael Howard's shadow cabinet. He started his career as a journalist, making up lies about the EU, such as fake EU laws on bendy bananas and condom sizes. And in his fairly short political career he has become legendary for making bold promises he breaks as soon as those promises hit the hard stone of reality. There are plenty of examples of that from his time as London Mayor (and btw almost all boasts about his record as Mayor are fake) . And in his short 4 months as Prime Minister he has already broken his promise to the DUP that he'd never agree to a border in the Irish Sea, and, of course, his infamous "die in a ditch" pledge to never ask the EU to extend Brexit beyond 31st October (despite well knowing he was obliged to to request an extension if parliament didn't pass his deal).
Frustratingly, in this election he has mostly get managed to away from full exposure of his dishonesty because he has wisely evaded the all seeing search lights of Andrew Neill and Piers Morgan (even hiding in a fridge to avoid Piers). It's also because his opponent in Jeremy Corbyn is just too decent to "do personal", despite the mud thrown in his own direction. The politician who comes closest to him in terms of dishonesty is Trump but to be fair to Boris he is both cleverer and less nasty. Boris is primarily not out there to harm anyone nor to follow any particular creed, even Brexit. Hence why his old mate David Cameron was stunned when on the eve of the referendum for the first time ever he "outted" himself as a leaver, purely because of his calculation that this would best serve his ambitions to be the future Tory leader and PM (whatever way the result want). And that's the thing about Boris, unlike most politicians of all colours who I believe are largely motivated do good (including his predecessor), Boris's only real motivation is Boris and what does him most good and gives him the most fun. For him being Prime Minister is all a big hoot and the lies and fantasies are all just part of the game to get and keep him there.
Sadly, the deceived, disillusioned and desperate people buying his promise that getting his Brexit done will see our communities revived, are being sold a poison that will do the very opposite (see my earlier piece: https://jeremysblog67.blogspot.com/2019/12/get-brexit-done-why-boris-wont-why-and.html?m=1 )
In its final pre-election poll on Tuesday, the most reliable poll, Yougov's MRP model, forecast a 9% Tory poll lead (Tory 43 Lab 34 LD 12) with a 28 seat majority. Sadly, a much maligned and unpopular oppostion leader seems as capable of defeating them as Tolkien's enfeebled Steward Denethor seemed of beating Sauron.
I feel a bit like Pippin and Gandalf on the eve of battle looking out across the plain at the dark storm clouds gathering as their apparently invincible opponent, Modor, massed its forces for victory and to wreak evil destruction upon the land.
"Is there any hope, Gandalf?...." asks Pippin.
Gandalf put his hand on Pippin's head. "There never was much hope," he answered. "Just a fool's hope, as I have been told."
And yet I know how that story ends: with victory snatched from the fangs of defeat, as Sam throws the One ring into the fires of Mount Doom and thus destroys Sauron's power. The Ring of Power
And foolish though any hope now might seem, there is a chink of light. A move of but a few % to Labour (or Lib Dem) would destroy his power; most projections predict a hung Parliament if the Tory lead fell by 3% from 9 to 6%. In fact its estimated that less than 41,000 tactical votes in 36 marginal seats could stop him. The true ring of power that binds all the others is actually in our own hands: our vote- to prevent hard Tory Brexit and austerity and fight Climate Change. But for there to be any hope we need to wield our votes wisely and vote tactically to defeat the enemy and prevent the evil they would unleash.
Let me be clear: I do not say Tory politicians are evil like Sauron (well not all of them!) and neither do I say that the millions who will vote for them are bad or stupid. Good and clever people can be deceived into doing bad or unwise things. I know this because I myself have been deceived more than once into voting in governments that I can now see have done great harm to our nation. I believe the Tories themselves have been deceived into becoming deceivers (and as a Christian ultimately I'd say the source of all such deceit is the hidden spiritual power of Satan). But under Boris the Tories have become purveyors of a perfumed poison they believe to be a panacea. And the destruction that poison would wreak upon our land (and has already started to) is not from some fantasy story but all too real.
Climate Change
This is the greatest threat to all our futures. David Attenborough warns us, "if we have not taken dramatic action within the next decade, we could face irreversible damage to the natural world and the collapse of our societies".
Failing public services
The Tories' ideologically driven austerity cuts have ravaged our public services. I could quote plenty of statistics, but we can see this daily for ourselves; perhaps most graphically summed up in that picture of the 4 year old Leeds boy, lying for hours on a A&E floor (Thankfully he didnt die, but doctors' research released just this week found 5,500 deaths caused directly by excessive waits in A&E over the last 3 years)
But it's not just the lack of hospital beds and GP appointments, but swelling classroom sizes, overstretched police forces leaving our streets unpatrolled, child and youth centres closed down, social and care services pared to the bone, overcrowded late and expensive trains, no buses and have you tried to use our court service recently? The Tories are promising significantly increased funding for our NHS and police. However it wont make up for their cuts. Their addiction to selling off parts of our public services, including our NHS, threatens their long term viability (billions are already sucked out in profits to private companies running much of our services). Their version of Brexit and proposed trade deal with the USA really would put our NHS on the negotiating table. Their foolish immigration policies will also make it very hard to attract the foreign doctors, nurses and carers we need (charging them to access the very services they would provide!). There would still be a large gap in our schools budgets and for all other local or public services no more money at all; austerity is "baked in" say the IFS.
Poverty
Our land's growing poverty; both material poverty and poverty of opportunity, a shocking blight in a country which is still the 5th richest in the world (albeit fast falling to 6th). Again, I could site plenty of statistics, but we can see it for ourselves in the huge numbers of working families having to rely on food banks and the homeless stewing our streets. The cause is no mystery; the slashing of benefits and other public support and failure to invest in genuinely affordable housing.
And then there's all the lost opportunities we see in the wastelands of closed factories and boarded up shops and (close to my own heart) 1,000s of graduates with £40k debts in minimum wage jobs. And the Tories' policies to remedy any of this? Nada, zilch, is the IFS's assessment, and they forecast big further increases in childhood poverty and homelessness.
Stagnating Economy and the threat of hard Brexit
Contrary to Tory myth, the last Labour government brought about the longest sustained period of real growth until the bankers crashed the world economy (nothing to do with Labour borrowing btw which was lower than they'd inherited). Our economy has now been stagnating for a decade under the Tories with no real wage growth, held back by austerity and lack of public investment.
Further damage has been done by the Tory-made Brexit uncertainty, causing a falling pound and haemorrhaging of billions of private investment to safer continental shores. Thus the negative Brexit effect is estimated to have reduced our economic growth by 3% before we've even left the EU. Yes there are jobs but increasingly insecure and poorly paid jobs. If you dont think Tory Brexit has already damaged our economy ask a group of recent graduates like my son and many of his friends about just how much harder it is for good graduates to get good graduate jobs now.
And Boris's biggest lie is that getting Brexit done will magically release a new era of growth and prosperity. It won't and can't. All serious economists predict that all of his Brexit scenarios (hard or no deal) can only seriously damage our economy. The awful irony of voters in Northern ex-industrial towns, whose industries were destroyed by Maggie, is that rather than Brexit magically breathing new life into their towns it can bring about new death. It's a bit like the cigarette manufacturers in the 1930s boasting that smoking their cigarettes protected your throat and voice when actually they caused throat and voice box cancer.
And Boris's biggest lie is that getting Brexit done will magically release a new era of growth and prosperity. It won't and can't. All serious economists predict that all of his Brexit scenarios (hard or no deal) can only seriously damage our economy. The awful irony of voters in Northern ex-industrial towns, whose industries were destroyed by Maggie, is that rather than Brexit magically breathing new life into their towns it can bring about new death. It's a bit like the cigarette manufacturers in the 1930s boasting that smoking their cigarettes protected your throat and voice when actually they caused throat and voice box cancer.
The break-up of our nation
Boris Johnson's Brexit withdrawal deal would divide Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK by creating a border in the Irish Sea, directly breaking Boris's promise to the DUP (Hence they withdrew their support of him). And the division and economic damage threatened by a Tory Brexit has breathed new life into campaigns to leave the UK in Scotland and Northern Ireland. They strongly object to the English dragging them out of the EU against their will. Polling evidence suggests a hard or no deal Brexit would bring about a majority for independence in both those countries. Ultimately England would be unable to resist such pressures and both of them would likely leave the UK in the near future. And who's to say Wales wouldn't follow them? A hard Tory Brexit therefore very directly threatens the break up of our entire nation. What an irony that a Conservative and Unionist government led by a supposed "one nation" Tory Prime Minister should be midwife to the breakup of that union!
So what is the alternative? Let me say first what it's not.
If you're worried the Lib Dems would just prop up a Johnson minority government, have a reality check. In this election the very thing the Lib Dems have trained their guns to destroy is the very thing the Tories have trained their guns to defend; Brexit. (This is on a very different scale to 2010's tuition fees promise). There would be no Tory/Lib Dem deal this time.
If you're worried about a rampant Marxist Prime Minister nationalising everything, doubling out taxes or recklessly giving away billions the country cant afford, that's not going to happen either. Not just because those aren't actually Labours policies, but because Labour now have no chance of getting a majority (as the Shadow Health Secretary just let slip). To achieve that they would need leap from about -9% behind the Tories to about +12% above them- a swing of over 10%. Even in these unpredictable times we have never seen anything close to that (the last minute swings to Tories and Labour in 2015 and 2017 respectively were about 3% against the average polls and the Brexit vote about 2%). No pollster so far has predicted anything better for Labour than -6%, which would probably only just get us into hung parliament territory. And to form a government without Lib Dem consent Labour would probably require a swing of at least 6% from about- 9% to +3%- extremely unlikely.
If you're worried about a rampant Marxist Prime Minister nationalising everything, doubling out taxes or recklessly giving away billions the country cant afford, that's not going to happen either. Not just because those aren't actually Labours policies, but because Labour now have no chance of getting a majority (as the Shadow Health Secretary just let slip). To achieve that they would need leap from about -9% behind the Tories to about +12% above them- a swing of over 10%. Even in these unpredictable times we have never seen anything close to that (the last minute swings to Tories and Labour in 2015 and 2017 respectively were about 3% against the average polls and the Brexit vote about 2%). No pollster so far has predicted anything better for Labour than -6%, which would probably only just get us into hung parliament territory. And to form a government without Lib Dem consent Labour would probably require a swing of at least 6% from about- 9% to +3%- extremely unlikely.
Therefore to govern at all Labour will only be able to do so with the consent of other current opposition parties, including almost certainly the Lib Dems. The Lib Dems have already said they would veto Labour's more radical policies like renationalizations and would doubtless also put a break on more generous promises like the £58 billion for the WASPI women's compensation. It is far from certain that all the other parties would even allow Jeremy Corbyn to become our permanent Prime Minister.
But what a minority Labour government could deliver would be so much better than the damage Boris's Tories would do
What such an opposition grouping would likely offer are the key things they are all committed to. As the group's largest party and the only ones in actual government, Labour would be able to do many, even most, of the great things in their manifesto but not certain more radical policies that the Lib Dems or others strongly oppose. They would still be able to agree a whole host of good things that should make such a positive difference to this country:
Climate Change Action.
All the main opposition parties, Labour Lib Dem, Greens, SNP etc are committed to big action to fight this greatest threat of our time; mass tree planting, retrofitting home insulation, banning carbon cars by 2030, reinvesting in public transport, huge expansion of wind and solar, etc. On climate change policies Friends of the Earth give Labour 73%, Greens 69% and Lib Dems 67% compared to the Tories' pathetic 12%. Labour's Green Industrial Revolution would get its green light for go.
An end to austerity/rescued public services
They are all committed to ending austerity and a big reinvestment to rescue our public services including the NHS, schools and police. The Lib Dems, still desperate to bury their shameful past as handmaidens to austerity, are hardly likely to want to stand in the way of ending it. Equally they are hardly likely to block moderate tax increases on the top 5% to help pay for this and their proposals to raise Corporation Tax are almost identical to Labour's.
They are all committed to ending austerity and a big reinvestment to rescue our public services including the NHS, schools and police. The Lib Dems, still desperate to bury their shameful past as handmaidens to austerity, are hardly likely to want to stand in the way of ending it. Equally they are hardly likely to block moderate tax increases on the top 5% to help pay for this and their proposals to raise Corporation Tax are almost identical to Labour's.
Fighting poverty
They are all committed to reversing the worst of the welfare benefit cuts and again the Lib Dems are hardly likely to stand in the way of reopening our Sure Start centres or big reinvestment in genuinely affordable new homes (the SNP has already been doing this in Scotland).
Stop a hard Brexit- let the people decide, and revive our economy
All of the opposition parties are committed to preventing an economically devastating hard Brexit and giving us a second Brexit referendum next year. They would therefore fall behind Labour's legally binding referendum to offer the public a genuine choice of a soft Brexit (minimizing any economic damage) or remain. All parties are also committed to borrowing to reinvest and revive our economy (although large scale renationalisation won't now be part of that).
Keep our nation together
The SNP would get their Indy ref 2 in early 2021 but settling Brexit by a soft landing version or remain would pour cold water on their yes campaign that was only revived because of Brexit. Having just been saved from a hard Brexit are the Scots really going to vote to impose the double whammy of a double Brexit by leaving the UK and therefore also the EU? There would be a resounding No and the issue would be done. There would be no border in either the Irish Sea or across the island of Ireland and no prospect of a United Ireland.
Breathe new life into our democracy with Proportional Representation
Our democracy is broken at the moment with many feeling their vote doesn't really count, especially if you happen to live in a "safe" seat. The best way to revive our democracy is through a policy that isn't in Labour's manifesto: introduce Proportional Representation, so that the share of vote that a party is given is represented by the number of MPs it receives. It's a system that works in the rest of Europe and even in the Scottish parliament. It would ensure people can vote for what and who they really believe in wherever they happen to live- no more need for the type of tactical voting I'm advocating here. No longer would a party receiving 43% of the vote get a clear majority or a noisy minority within a major party be able to foister on the whole country a dangerous and extreme policy as the Eurosceptic Tories have done with Brexit. The extremes of Thatcherism and an illegal war in Iraq would probably never have happened. Instead the parties actually chosen by the people would have to work together co-operatively for the common good, just as they would if there's a hung Parliament come Friday. And if you think that would automatically mean a bland moderate magnolia government, think of all the good things say a Labour-Green coalition might do and how the interchange of ideas across parties could be a wonderful, creative thing. Believe it or not, sometimes the best ideas come from a party you don't support, like PR!
Back now to grim reality and the dark forces of Mordor surrounding us. I do know that the hopes of a Labour-led government are slim; a fool's hope perhaps. But I also know the end is not inevitable. The power is in our hands. It would take just a small number of people in the right places to wake up and see the peril of the poison the Tories would release on our land, hold their nose and vote tactically to defeat them; throw the ring into Mount Doom. And we'll probably never need to vote tactically again.
In most places the best way to beat the Tories is by voting Labour. But if you live in Brighton its Green and if you live say in Guildford only the Lib Dems have a hope of winning. Vote Labour here and you'll only increase the chance of a Tory victory. And don’t be put off if you’re in a “safe” Tory seat. There are always some surprise election results like last time when Canterbury voted in its first ever Labour MP. If you're unsure who is best placed to beat the Tories where you live then have a look at a tactical voting site like https://www.peoples-vote.uk/ or https://tacticalvote.getvoting.org/ .
If we fail let us at least fail trying. So that if our children and granchildren one day ask us what we did to prevent the damage the Tories released upon on us on that Friday 13th we will have a good answer. We won't have to admit that we voted Tory because we were blinded by the big Brexit con or the lies that the "other guy" was even worse (untrue and a false choice- the "other guy" was never going to get a majority), or we voted for a party that had no chance of winning where we lived rather than soiling our hands with voting tactically to defeat the Tories.
"Evil triumphs when good people do nothing."
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